WHERE ARE WE NOW?
The current state of transport
THE CURRENT STATE OF THE TRANSPORT INDUSTRY IN ASIA
Despite some progress, Asia is not yet prepared to curb transport emissions growth.
Transport emissions are on the rise in the region.
- In Asia, international passenger transport emissions are estimated to grow by 245% up to 2050 if no further action is taken (ITF, 2021).
- Based on the long distances involved, international freight activity already represented 70% of freight in Asia in 2015 and its importance is projected to further increase to 76% by 2050 (ITF, 2021).
- Under current policies, international freight, within the region as well as to and from the region, non-urban passenger transport and domestic non-urban freight transport are expected to represent two thirds of emissions by 2050 (ITF, 2021).
International climate commitments (NDCs) are lacking ambition and need specific transport targets.
- As of 10 January 2022, 25 countries from Asia have submitted updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) or second NDCs.However, only four of these NDCs contain a quantitative GHG target for the transport sector (Bangladesh, Georgia, Japan and Sri Lanka).
- Five more contain other types of targets, for example related to electric and/or hydrogen vehicles or biofuels.
- In addition, eight countries in Asia have submitted long-term strategies to the UNFCCC, Japan and Singapore have comprehensive avoid, shift and improve strategies, with clear related targets. Most others, however, have not quantified targets for the sector or individual activities.
National transport strategies are not yet aligned with broader domestic climate ambitionto the climate ambition in most countries.
- Out of 34 Asian countries analysed, 29 have some form of national transport vision statement, but while 15 of these feature sustainability, only 7 relate to ‘green’ or ‘environmentally friendly’ transport, without clearly addressing climate change.
- Only around half of the countries have a formal, sector wide transport policy, with the majority being adopted before 2016, when the Paris Agreement came into force (ADB, n.d.).
While a growing number of countries are implementing vehicle and fuel regulationsmeasures supporting a transition, these measures are not yet enough.
- Explicit targets to phase-out internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles are still rare in Asia (Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, Indonesia).
- Only 13 of the countries in Asia have fuel economy standards in place, nine of which under the common ASEAN standard for light-duty vehicles.
- Only China, India and Japan have any standards for heavy duty vehicles.
- Only 8 countries in the region have biofuel mandates. Fossil fuel subsidies, including for electricity, continue to favour unsustainable practices.
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NEED TO ADDRESS SUSTAINABILITY AS A WHOLE
Climate action will benefit from addressing the wider benefits of sustainable transport
Despite varying improvements on road safety, health impacts from air pollution and lack of physical movement are on the rise.
Almost 240 thousand deaths were attributed to PM2.5 and ozone from transport emissions in Asia in 2015.
The 50 most polluted cities were all in Asia.
In many Asian countries the sector is increasingly contributing to NOx and SOx emissions.
Globally, physical inactivity is estimated to have cost US$ 54 billion in direct health care in 2013.
The cost of congestion is also growing and is estimated at over US$ 350 billion per year, based on lost productivity and health impacts.
It is only when we improve access for the most vulnerable and those who are excluded while planning that transformation will take place towards more sustainability.
For example, public transport should reach peripheries of cities as well as low income neighborhoods to ensure equity and access.
Dr. Kalpana Viswanath,
Safetipin
Access is improving, but not for all. There are still many people without adequate access to elementary goods and services, especially in rural areas.
Additionally, inclusive and equitable mobility requires more in-depth analysis since mobility options do not always reach or meet the needs of the poorest and most vulnerable, especially women, girls, and other genders and often neglect the special needs of the disabled
The transport sector in Asia is very diverse, there are many points of divergence in countries across the region.
Motorisation rates are still closely linked to economic development. While personal vehicle ownership is still low in Asia, it boasts the fastest growth rates globallywith large differences between countries.
Share in global vehicle production 2019
- Paratransit often serves as the main mode of public transport in smaller cities, city peripheries and rural areas. However, the role of the informal sector for employment is often ignored and not reflected in the official statistics.
- Many lower-income countries, especially in Southeast Asia, are still relying more on two- and three-wheelers for motorisation, such as India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Vietnam, with shares of up to 95% of total motorised vehicles.
- Mini-cars are gaining popularity in many Asian markets, especially in Japan, China and India.
- Four countries in Asia together supplied 48% of global vehicles in 2019, including passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, busses and trucks, with 28% coming from China alone.
Countries across asia also have different relationships with oil.
- Oil production and refining is an important economic activity for some countries in the region. Employment effects in this sector and the economic effects on the countries’ budgets need to be considered when addressing sustainability challenges in the transport sector and a just transition planned and supported.
- Although some countries in Asia have substantial oil production, most are net importers as consumption outpaces production, so phasing-out fossil fuel use in transport will not only reduce GHG emissions, but also improve the trade balance of countries.
The transport sector in Asia is very diverse, transport in Asia is diverse, there are many points of divergence in countries across the region.
Motorisation rates are still closely linked to economic development. While personal vehicle ownership is still low in Asia, it boasts the fastest growth rates globallywith large differences between countries.
- Paratransit often serves as the main mode of public transport in smaller cities, city peripheries and rural areas. However, the role of the informal sector for employment is often ignored and not reflected in the official statistics.
- Many lower-income countries, especially in Southeast Asia, are still relying more on two- and three-wheelers for motorisation, such as India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Vietnam, with shares of up to 95% of total motorised vehicles.
- Mini-cars are gaining popularity in many Asian markets, especially in Japan, China and India.
- Four countries in Asia together supplied 48% of global vehicles in 2019, including passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, busses and trucks, with 28% coming from China alone.
Countries across asia also have different relationships with oil.
- Oil production and refining is an important economic activity for some countries in the region. Employment effects in this sector and the economic effects on the countries’ budgets need to be considered when addressing sustainability challenges in the transport sector and a just transition planned and supported.
- Although some countries in Asia have substantial oil production, most are net importers as consumption outpaces production, so phasing-out fossil fuel use in transport will not only reduce GHG emissions, but also improve the trade balance of countries.
The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted mobility systems in Asia, posing both risks and providing opportunities for change.
Economic recovery and persistent inflation are still a concern in Asia after multiple waves of the of the COVID-19 pandemic.
All countries in Asia have experienced significant economic losses. Recurrent outbreaks of the virus have impacted recovery efforts.
Negative GDP effects due to restricted transport activity and lower transport-sector employment are therefore anticipated across the region.
Additionally, persistent inflation is expected from higher commodity prices and shipping costs, coupled with continued supply-side disruptions.
The pandemic has strongly impacted global and regional GHG emissions from the sector in 2020, but without additional action, their growth is expected to resume.
It is very likely that those who moved from public transport to personal vehicles during the pandemic will continue using these vehicles in favour of public transport or active mobility options, especially if the vehicle was newly procured due to fear from infection.
The sale of new and used personal motor vehicles is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels.
Improving public communication surrounding hygiene is key in the post-COVID-19 era.
Data suggests that globally public transport witnessed the largest decline in mobility, with a 76% decline in April 2020.
Clear policies that favour public transport, improved hygiene solutions and good communication will be important for reviving and expanding ridership.
Freight activity fell initially, but demand quickly surged as the pandemic subsided.
By early 2021, freight rates from China to South America had jumped 443% increase in e-Commerce spending and demand for door-to-door logistics solutions is expected to drive demand in Asia.
Now the sale of personal motor vehicles can resume to pre-COVID-19 levels.
The sale of new and used personal motor vehicles is expected to resume demand to pre-COVID-19 levels. Motorization may even have gone back to or even exceeded pre-COVID levels in cities around the world
Active mobility has gained momentum, which can be leveraged.
There is some evidence that people are shifting away from using private motorised vehicles to walking and cycling.
Massive change can be triggered if needed.
The large recovery investments and the rapid changes in behaviour observed over the last year demonstrates that fast change is possible. The challenge now is how to harness these experiences to move move from ‘change by disaster’ to change by design.’
The ongoing COVID-19 recovery packages can set the path.
The ongoing pandemic recovery packages represent unprecedented levels of public investment, which can be channelled towards decarbonizing transport.
At the global level, so far only 1.5% of recovery spending devoted to transport is allocated to improving active transport while 13% is dedicated to the stabilisation of public transport systems.
The large majority, comprising 56%, is dedicated to ‘grey transport’, including aviation and ICE vehicle manufacturing bailouts without conditionality, tax repeals, emission standard rollbacks and road construction (WRI, 2021). This is a lost opportunity.
Government recovery strategies must leverage their resources to attract investment in transport decarbonisation from various non-public sources, including public–private partnerships, financial institutions and capital markets (ADB, 2020).
